The Mechanisms of Crypto Compliance Continue to Evolve Rapidly
After a transformative 2025 (marked by the passage of the GENIUS Act), growing state–federal friction, stablecoin frameworks, state-level crypto kiosk legislation, and AI’s emergence in compliance one thing is clear: the crypto industry is entering a new chapter.
2026 won’t be “business as usual.”
It will be the year crypto compliance shifts from reactive guardrails to proactive intelligence. The year that transparency becomes a competitive asset. The year that state, federal, and global forces finally start aligning around practical standards.
In this forward-looking wrap-up, BitAML shares its predictions for the compliance trends, regulatory shifts, and industry behaviors we expect to define the next 12 months.
Prediction #1: State-Level Frameworks Take the Lead
With uncertainty at the federal level and major structural changes occurring within consumer-protection agencies, states are positioned to take a leading role in shaping crypto regulation in 2026.
The apparent wind-down of the CFPB—combined with its reduced ability to pursue direct enforcement and consumer-protection actions—signals an environment where states will seek to shoulder more of the responsibility for safeguarding consumers in digital asset markets. As federal guardrails soften, state regulators will be motivated to use their own statutory tools, investigative networks, and licensing regimes to fill the gap.
This is not hypothetical. We saw the groundwork in 2025:
- California advanced its Digital Financial Assets Law (DFAL), with licensing requirements set to activate in 2026.
- Illinois, Louisiana, and others passed comprehensive frameworks that mirror early models like New York’s BitLicense and California’s DFAL.
- Over 40 states debated or enacted crypto-related bills in the last legislative cycle, indicating deep and sustained momentum.
Expect this trend to accelerate. State agencies will issue guidance faster, refine licensing expectations more quickly, and set precedents—long before federal agencies finalize any unified framework.
Compliance takeaway:
Businesses operating across state lines must prepare for a patchwork reality. State-aware AML programs, adaptable policies, and proactive engagement with state regulators will define the compliance leaders of 2026.
Prediction #2: Fighting Scams Becomes a National Priority
Crypto scams surged in recent years, prompting heightened public awareness—and 2026 will bring an unprecedented push to curb them.
At the federal level, we witnessed the unprecedented creation of the Scam Center Strike Force, and initiative established to ‘combine the power, reach and resources’ of the US Attorney’s Office for DC with the Department of Justice (DoJ)’s Criminal Division, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and US Secret Service. The move signaled a more coordinated response to cross-border fraud, pig-butchering schemes, and romance scams fueled by digital assets. High-profile organizations like Operation Shamrock have made scam typologies household conversation, and prosecutors are responding with multi-agency collaboration.
States are not far behind.
California’s Little Hoover Commission spent the latter part of 2025 examining the billions lost by Californians to fraudulent schemes and actively solicited input from stakeholders across the crypto and compliance sectors—including comment letters from CBAC. This focus will likely translate into new state-level expectations, reporting obligations, stronger law enforcement coordination, and enhanced consumer-protection measures.
Compliance takeaway:
Expect regulators to expect you to play a role. VASPs will need clearer disclosures, smarter transaction monitoring, stronger anomaly detection, and more proactive customer-education programs. In 2026, consumer protection will become everyone’s job.
Prediction #3: Stablecoin Oversight and The True Meaning of “Substantially Similar”
As the GENIUS Act moves from statute to implementation, 2026 is shaping up to be the year when states and federal regulators enter a regulatory cross-current over stablecoin oversight. States are already drafting or refining their own stablecoin frameworks, eager to protect consumers, attract innovation, and maintain control over digital-asset markets within their borders. But the GENIUS Act’s requirement that state regimes be “substantially similar” to the federal framework is poised to create a dynamic—and sometimes contentious—back-and-forth.
On one side, states will attempt to tailor rules to their unique markets, building on years of digital-asset policymaking experience. On the other, federal rulemakers will be crafting national standards for reserves, attestations, redemption rights, and governance. Inevitably, states will push the boundaries of what they believe is compliant, and federal regulators will push back, resulting in iterative adjustments, interpretive guidance, and perhaps even negotiation behind the scenes.
The tension won’t be a failure of the system—it will be the system working as designed. With the GENIUS Act setting the baseline and states experimenting at the edges, 2026 will be the year we begin to learn, in practice, how flexible or rigid “substantially similar” really is.
Prediction #4: Artificial Intelligence Joins the Compliance Toolkit
In 2025, AI tiptoed into compliance.
In 2026, it will become a staple.
Expect widespread adoption of:
- AI-driven transaction monitoring
- Automated SAR drafting
- Enhanced Behavioral and anomaly detection
- Dynamic real-time risk scoring models
But with opportunity comes scrutiny. Regulators will emphasize “explainable AI”—tools must be able to show why something was flagged, not simply that it was.
Compliance teams that pair machine scale with human judgment will thrive.
Compliance takeaway:
AI is not a replacement for expertise. It’s an amplifier. And regulators will want proof you’re using it responsibly.
Prediction #5: Cross-Border Cooperation Tightens
Crypto compliance is no longer bounded by national borders. FATF standards, EU MiCA requirements, and global Travel Rule expectations are converging into a more cohesive international framework.
In 2026, U.S. exchanges and MSBs should expect:
- Stronger incentives to adopt FATF-aligned controls
- More pressure to support Travel Rule interoperability
- Globalized risk scoring expectations
- Increased coordination between foreign and U.S. regulators
Compliance takeaway:
Cross-border compliance literacy becomes essential. Firms that understand international standards will avoid friction—and gain global banking and licensing advantages.
Prediction #6: Banking Partnerships 2.0 Expand
Banks spent years cautiously sitting on the sidelines of digital assets. That era is ending. In 2026, risk-managed collaboration replaces blanket de-risking.
Banks will explore or deepen partnerships in:
- Stablecoin settlement
- Tokenized deposits
- Institutional-grade custody
- Blockchain-enabled payments
The common thread? Banks are willing to engage—but only with crypto firms demonstrating exceptional compliance maturity.
Compliance takeaway:
Strong AML/KYC programs are not just a regulatory requirement—they’re a business development tool.
Bonus Prediction #7: The Compliance Officer Evolves
The crypto compliance officer role is no longer niche—it’s becoming a recognized specialization.
The 2026 compliance officer will blend:
- Legal knowledge
- Forensic investigation skills
- Data analytics fluency
- Legislative policy knowledge
- Tech literacy (especially AI and blockchain tooling)
Compliance takeaway:
Hiring trends will favor hybrid skill sets. The teams that invest in training and cross-disciplinary expertise will outperform competitors.
Building Trust Beyond Regulation
If 2025 established the foundation, 2026 will test how well the industry builds on it. The crypto businesses that thrive in 2026 will be the ones that treat compliance as a differentiator, not an obligation.
Ready to future-proof your compliance program for the year ahead? Schedule your free discovery call with BitAML today, to learn how to adapt, align, and lead with confidence in 2026.